Monthly Archives: September 2014

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE, WHO NEEDS ENEMIES?

The Better Together campaign is unenthusiastic about the prospect of UKIP and Orange Order activities in Scotland just before the referendum vote on 18 September.

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The Orange Order is an inclusive name for a number of Protestant, pro-Union “lodges” with their base in Northern Ireland. They have also some representation in South-west Scotland, from which region many of their ancestors moved to Ireland after it was subdued by British forces during the seventeenth century. The values of the Orange order has been the major cause of the “The Troubles” that culminated in Northern Ireland from the late sixties until the end of the last century – although sporadic clashes still occur. It wants Scotland, like Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom. To the rest of the world the Orange Order tries to promote an image of Protestant cultural affinity with Britain but most observers see it as a bunch of provincial bully boys who use religion as a cover for preventing Roman Catholics from enjoying equal rights and opportunities in Northern Ireland. This takes the outward form of provocative marches with orange regalia and music through Catholic areas, to “commemorate” the arrival and continuance of British rule. On September 13 the Scottish lodge will march in Edinburgh (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/scottish-republicans-orange-order-parade-yes-campaign). The republican grass-roots James Connolly Society has asked its supporters to stay away from the coming march in Edinburgh and to ensure that they are not involved in any violence with the Order (http://107cowgate.com/2014/09/02/jcs-statement-on-orange-orders-independence-referendum-march/).

This blog has previously reported how the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has made major political gains in the election to the European parliament and how the Conservative party is being forced into a more Eurosceptic position by Conservative MP defection to UKIP. Only one has done so so far but there are speculations that a number of others are only waiting for the right opportunity (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11065058/Eurosceptic-Tories-accuse-Douglas-Carswell-of-betrayal-after-his-defection-to-Ukip.html). Although UKIP has a strong base in England, as shown by recent European parliament electoral returns, this is not the case in Scotland, (23 MEPs from English constituencies, 1 from Scottish). None the less the UKIP leader Nigel Farage plans a UKIP rally in Glasgow in support of the Union on 12 September (http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/concern-at-farage-scottish-visit-before-orange-march.25192378), bringing in people from other parts of the UK. Better Together have officially denied any support for the rally. If it helps tip the currently delicate balance over to a Yes result then in 2016 Westminster will lose a block of 40 out of the current 257 Labour MPs. This could create space for UKIP to fight a head-on battle with the Conservatives for the Eurosceptic vote in rUK.

Yes or No for Scotland, there are big changes ahead in British politics.

BETTER TOGETHER WELL-REPRESENTED ON THIRD AND FINAL TV-DEBATE

Yesterday evening (2 September) a third and final TV debate on the subject of Scottish independence was held in Edinburgh. The format was different, with each side represented by three prominent politicians, Bernard Ponsonby again in the chair, and a larger number of questions from the select audience directly to the panel. You can watch it yourself on this link: http://player.stv.tv/programmes/yes-or-no/

Thanks to the change of format a greater variety of topics were covered than in the previous debates, including EU, employment, oil revenues, defence and Trident, social justice, gender equality, local government financing and youth unemployment. It was also refreshing to hear a wider range of voices supporting the respective positions. One has to observe that the lead speakers for Yes Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, MSP (Deputy First Minster of the Scottish Parliament) and Better Together Douglas Alexander, MP (Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary) both presented more reasoned, yet still engaging, arguments than expressed in previous debates by their respective leaders. Questions from the public were mostly well-informed and well-expressed, resulting in a genuinely informative debate climate.

The second section of the debate was on social justice and welfare, conducted between Kezia Dugdale, MSP (Scottish Labour shadow education secretary) and Elaine C. Smith, MSP, (Chairperson of Scottish Independence Convention). Elaine Smith got off to a better start as Kezia Dugdale spoke so rapidly that few could follow what she was saying. However, when she slowed down a little Kezia came across as better informed and as equally engaged as her opposite number. None the less, according to my notes, Elaine Smith received three rounds of “heavy applause” from the audience against none for Kezia. I thought it surprising that the audience didn’t respond more strongly to Smith’s observations on the increasing threat of UKIP to the Conservative position on EU – this should be a Yes Scotland winner.

The third section of the debate, on defence and foreign affairs, was conducted between Ruth Davidson, MSP (leader of Scottish Conservatives) and Patrick Harvie, MSP (Co-convenor (språkrör) of the Scottish Green Party). While Ms. Davidson spoke with authority and conviction, Mr. Harvie ranted and raved more like a lunatic than a politician, giving us his own wildly unrealistic views on unilateral nuclear disarmament and a refusal to engage on topics such as NATO and the current threat from Russia. Mr. Ponsonby kindly referred to this as showing the breadth of political opinions within the Yes campaign. On a positive note, Mr Harvie did make the point that an independent Scotland was the only way to keep it within the EU and received heavy applause for his claim that the UK was “trying to punch above its weight” geopolitically and this cost money that would be better used on social justice at home.

After an extensive Question and Answer exchange between the public and the panel, the debate was rounded off by closing statements from Ruth Davidson and Patrick Harvie. Ms. Davidson made the point that independence, if won, was irrevocable but her claim that Better Together would offer further opportunities to improve one of the best countries in the world range hollow. Mr. Harvie had by now cooled down a bit and claimed that Yes Scotland represented a way out from the inequality and exploitation of Westminster and offered a new model for society. His final statement “We deserve better” was greeted by prolonged and heavy applause.

As before the audience was hand-picked to fairly represent both sides and included a number of undecided voters.

OLLI RHEN: iSCOTLAND MUST HAVE CENTRAL BANK ARRANGEMENT TO JOIN EU

Olli Rhen was the European commissioner with responsibility for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro. He left this post in July. There is no reason to think that Mr. Rhen has any personal position on independence for Scotland. So any statement he makes on the currency issue for an independent Scotland has to be given credibility.

According to the Guardian, Mr. Rhen has written to the Chief Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Danny Alexander, to make clear the currency position of an iScotland applying to join the EU. He claims that iScotland must either have a currency agreement with rUK, i.e. the Bank of England, or else it must have its own central bank. To use Sterling without a formal agreement with Westminster would not satisfy the entrance requirements (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/02/indepdent-scotland-not-join-eu-without-central-bank?).

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This must be a heavy blow to the Yes Scotland movement, which has been on a massive upswing since its leader Alex Salmond trounced Better Together leader Alistair Darling in a second debate broadcast nation-wide on 25 August. A YouGov poll published yesterday (2 September) showed that a swing of only 3% would bring the two sides neck-and-neck (http://research.yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/02/support-scottish-independence-jumps-47/) and claimed that support for No had “collapsed”. The Yes Scotland campaign to win over women voters is expected to have gained from a heavily-criticised Better Together videoclip (see previous blogg) and there is a groundswell of pro-independence reporting in the media.

All is not lost for the Yes Scotland position, which is that a currency union is in the best interests of both the rUK and iScotland. Such an agreement would make the Bank of England also the central bank of Scotland. However, the political price of such an arrangement has gone up.

Currency agreement in exchange for Trident, anyone?

NOTE: as this blog is aimed at Swedish people, it has so far been published in Swedish. Articles have been checked for grammar by native Swedish speakers. As the rate of the debate increases, this is no longer feasible. Given that all Swedes interested in this subject can read English, I believe that the change to English will not cause them any difficulties. I would like to publically thank Maj Hasselgren and Lars Jannerdal for thier generous help.