When Prime Minister David Cameron refused to allow a third option of “Devomax” on the ballot for IndyRef, he was sure that “No” would win. Now with even YouGov reporting the possibility of a “Yes” vote on the 18th (http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/yes-takes-lead-in-bombshell-indyref-poll.25254394) the media are beginning to speculate if Cameron would survive the secession of Scotland from The United Kingdom. Cameron himself has said he will not go but in critical times that decision rests with the hidden power in the Conservative party (http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/cameron-faces-calls-to-quit-if-scotland-votes-yes-30569191.html).
One sliver of hope for Cameron is that an independent Scotland would leave a post-independent Westminster with a comfortable right-wing majority, but it would also pose the threat of a UKIP surge to recruit Eurosceptic Conservatives (see earlier post).
The way the issue of currency has been tackled is also likely to be the subject of massive post-Indy criticism. The pro-Union position, both within the government and in the “Better Together” campaign, is that no currency union with an independent Scotland will be allowed. As the likelihood of a “Yes” vote increases financial markets are taking up positions that weaken the pound (http://www.cityam.com/1410155884/pound-plummets-scottish-independence-fears). This is likely to continue until a clear position on the future of the pound has been established. This could take months or it could be resolved quickly by an admission in principle that iScotland could use the pound with the Bank of England as a lender of last resort (http://www.thedrum.com/news/2014/09/08/pound-droops-will-london-parties-talk-salmond-about-currency-deal). However, as the currency issue was seen to be the strongest argument for Better Together, that card has not been dealt so far, regardless of the risks of political and economic fall-out.